After a volatile week of trading driven by the war in the Middle East, the international oil benchmark has settled just above $103 a barrel. This follows a peak of $117 earlier in the week, a level that triggered record-high stock valuations for companies like Shell and ExxonMobil. The current price level remains high enough to guarantee historic profit margins for the world’s largest energy producers.
The price stabilization comes as the market digests the “energy supply shock” resulting from military actions in Iran and the subsequent production shutdowns in neighboring Qatar. While prices have retreated from their mid-week highs, the overall trend remains firmly upward compared to the start of the year. Investors are now watching for signs of long-term supply disruptions that could keep prices elevated.
Shell, which hit an all-time valuation of £190 billion on Friday, has seen its shares rise by 12% in just two weeks. This performance is mirrored by U.S. giants Chevron and Exxon, which saw gains of 7% and 5%, respectively. The consistency of these gains across the sector highlights the broad impact of the current geopolitical environment on energy finance.
Despite the high prices, the industry faces a challenging operational landscape. Forced declarations of force majeure on LNG deliveries highlight the physical risks of operating near conflict zones. However, for companies like Norway’s Equinor, which operates far from the Middle East, the current situation represents a pure financial upside with minimal operational risk.
As the market enters the second half of March 2026, the focus will shift to how governments respond to these “crisis-driven” valuations. With public anger over energy costs rising, the possibility of new taxes or regulations looms over the industry. The stability of the current “oil boom” will depend as much on political decisions as it does on the developments on the battlefield.