Late Thursday, the Trump administration announced a 30-day waiver on sanctions for Russian oil currently at sea, citing the need to stabilize global energy prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the “temporary authorization” is a response to the growing instability caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. The decision comes as American drivers face a 65-cent per gallon increase in fuel costs over a single month.
The crisis is centered on the Strait of Hormuz, which has become virtually impassable due to military activity and reports of Iranian sea mines. Tehran has declared its intention to halt all oil exports from the region as long as it remains under attack by US and Israeli forces. This blockade has removed a massive portion of the world’s daily oil supply, driving Brent crude prices above the $100 mark.
By allowing the 124 million barrels of Russian oil currently on the water to reach refiners, the US hopes to create a “price ceiling” of sorts. Bessent argued that because the oil is already in transit, the financial benefit to Russia is limited. The administration is attempting to manage two separate geopolitical fronts—Russia and Iran—while preventing a domestic economic downturn.
The move has drawn a sharp response from Moscow, where officials claim the US is finally acknowledging that the global market cannot survive without Russian energy. Conversely, French President Emmanuel Macron has voiced strong opposition, stating that the situation in Iran does not justify any relaxation of the pressure on Russia. This internal G7 friction highlights the complexity of using energy as a weapon of war.
As the November midterm elections approach, the Trump administration is under pressure to show results at the gas pump. While the President has stated that the US is a major oil producer and can weather high prices, the inflationary impact on the broader economy is a significant risk. This 30-day waiver is a high-stakes gamble to see if the market can be soothed without ending the war in Iran.